The 2024 Trade Assessment Report reveals that South Africa’s trade with BRICS+ countries totalled $56.1 billion last year, 21% of the nation’s total trade volume. The bulk of this figure is made up of exports to China and India, but new markets like Indonesia and the UAE are steadily growing.
Given that Euro-American economies are projected to stagnate, the report suggests that “expanding exports to growing BRICS+ countries could improve the country’s overall trade balance”.
Dr. Stavros Nicolaou, a member of the South African BRICS Business Council, echoed this sentiment, noting: “We look to enhance trade with those geographies that present the best economic opportunity for the South African business community.”
That includes “trade with the West, the East, and the emerging South,” he added, emphasising a balanced, pragmatic approach.
The proposed U.S. tariffs could slash South African export earnings by R8–12 billion over the next 12 months, with key sectors such as platinum group metals, agri-business, and automotive manufacturing likely to bear the brunt.
“Higher tariffs and increased export costs are likely to diminish South Africa’s price competitiveness in the U.S. market,” Dr. Nicolaou warned.
Already, the South African Reserve Bank has revised 2025’s growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.7%. Nicolaou stressed that the impact is tangible: “The United States’ tariff regime has already exerted externalities on the country’s growth prospects.”
For South African SMEs, the news compounds longstanding structural issues such as infrastructure bottlenecks and limited market access. Dr. Nicolaou was candid: “It is often argued that economic agents cannot outpace the effects of years of suboptimal industrial policies, sluggish GDP growth, and a declining industrial base.”
He advocated for a productivity-focused strategy, which includes improving the ease of doing business, upskilling in science and mathematics, and investing in value-added manufacturing to avoid raw material dependency.
“To effectively integrate industries into the global network, South Africa must focus on improving its industrial productivity,” he said.
“Higher tariffs and increased export costs are likely to diminish South Africa’s price competitiveness in the U.S. market,” Dr. Nicolaou warned.
With traditional markets looking increasingly volatile, the South African BRICS Business Council is urging businesses to consider alternatives. “We see that there is an opportunity for South African businesses, especially SMEs, to explore alternative markets within Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East,” Nicolaou explained.
He also emphasised leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to boost intra-African trade.
While some speculate that the tensions may encourage BRICS nations to accelerate de-dollarization, Nicolaou clarified that “there has been no serious discussion on de-dollarization within the BRICS Business Council.”
Instead, he said the focus has been on “settlement in local currencies within BRICS nations to reduce the cost of doing business and improve efficiency.”
Despite the challenges, the Council stresses continued engagement with all global partners. “The United States remains an extremely important market for SA,” said Nicolaou. “We will continue to trade with and look to derive maximum value from all trading partners.”
At the same time, he called for reform of global trade systems: “We need to return to well-established principles of open markets and a WTO rules-based multilateral system.”
South Africa is not choosing sides in the geopolitical tug-of-war. Instead, it is choosing a strategy. “Strategic non-alignment is a phrase that I would highly emphasise in this context,” Nicolaou concluded.
As BRICS+ expands and trade shifts eastward and southward, South Africa’s challenge is to ensure its trade posture remains resilient, balanced, and above all, future-focused.
