South Africa’s expanding trade ties with the BRICS+ grouping present a compelling opportunity, yet the nation must urgently diversify, industrialise, and resolve longstanding infrastructure bottlenecks to unlock its full potential.
A recent $1.5 billion World Bank loan may assist in addressing these inefficiencies. The World Bank said the loan will address infrastructure
constraints in the energy and freight transport sectors.
SCALE, STRUCTURE, AND STRATEGIC RELEVANCE
The enlarged BRICS+ alliance now represents around 3.6 billion people – nearly 45% of the global population and over 30% of world GDP. South Africa, the only full African member, stands at the heart of this South-South trade shift. But
the critical challenge lies not in access, it’s in what the country sells.
According to the recent 2024/25 Strategic Trade Assessment, combined trade with BRICS+ countries reached USD 56.1 billion in 2024, accounting for roughly 21 per cent of total South African trade.
The trade structure remains heavily tilted towards raw commodities. Imports continue to flood in, particularly from BRICS heavy-hitters like China and India, while local manufacturing and value-added exports lag. Trade composition
is South Africa’s core challenge.
CHINA AND INDIA: GIANTS, DIVERGENT PATTERNS
Trade with China reached USD 34.2 billion, 61% of
total BRICS+ trade. Yet this relationship is highly
asymmetric: South Africa exports mainly raw
materials while importing finished products.
Though recent tariff concessions for products like avocados and dairy mark progress, they barely budge the needle on structural imbalance.
Meanwhile, India, the second-largest partner with USD 12.1 billion in trade, offers a long-term strategic advantage. India’s SME-driven growth model
provides a blueprint, something South Africa has yet to replicate. The launch of the India-SA Chamber of Commerce in 2024 added institutional support, paving the way for fresh produce, processed foods, mining equipment,
and potentially defence manufacturing ties.
DIVERSE PARTNERS, VARIED PROSPECTS
The UAE, with USD 5.6 billion in trade, represents one of South Africa’s few positive trade balances, offering significant alignment in financial services, logistics, and infrastructure models that could inform SADC-wide trade corridor development.
Brazil, with USD 1.78 billion in bilateral trade, remains heavily commodity-based under the SACU-MERCOSUR PTA, but opportunities exist in
agro-processing, mining beneficiation, and climate technologies.
Bilateral trade with Indonesia remains modest at USD 1.3 billion, underwhelming despite Indonesia’s entry into BRICS+. Industrial linkages
remain weak, highlighting the need for targeted engagement to unlock manufacturing synergies.
South Africa’s trade with Russia (USD 858 million)
and Iran (USD 23.3 million) remains politically complex, limited by sanctions risk and geopolitical fragility.
Meanwhile, intra-African partners Egypt (USD 639 million) and Ethiopia (USD 38 million) offer long-term opportunities under AfCFTA, though infrastructure deficits and regulatory barriers remain significant hurdles.
SUPPLY-SIDE WEAKNESSES: HOLDING BACK GROWTH
Despite promising external linkages, supply-side constraints persist. Port and logistics inefficiencies, particularly in Durban, continue to hamper export competitiveness. South Africa’s industrial base remains shallow, heavily reliant
on raw commodity exports, while SMEs lack sufficient export financing, compliance capabilities, and market access support.
Currency volatility, dollar-dependency, and growing exposure to Western sanctions add further complexity.
The geopolitical balancing act of maintaining strong BRICS+ relations while navigating Western scrutiny demands sophisticated diplomatic and
financial agility.
A STRATEGIC WAY FORWARD
First, industrial policy must be rapidly scaled up. South Africa should prioritise key sectors such as agro-processing, renewable energy technologies, pharmaceuticals, defence industries, and mining beneficiation. These industries not only offer higher value-added export potential but also position the country more competitively within both the BRICS+ and AfCFTA frameworks. Supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMES) will be critical to this transformation.
The creation of a dedicated SME Export Development Agency with ring-fenced funding would allow SMEs to access export credit, compliance assistance, and certification programmes tailored to BRICS+ market entry standards. This
would help embed SMES more fully into cross-border supply chains and diversify South Africa’s export base beyond raw commodities.
Logistics modernisation also remains urgent. Digitising customs procedures, automating port operations, and upgrading SADC transport corridors will streamline trade flows, reduce costly delays, and increase South Africa’s
competitiveness as a regional logistics hub.
Geopolitical resilience is another priority. South Africa must strengthen its sanctions compliance infrastructure and explore mechanisms to diversify its currency reliance away from the dollar. This will provide greater
flexibility in navigating an increasingly fragmented and contested global trade
environment.
South Africa should fully leverage the AfCFTA as a scalable growth platform. Targeted BRICS+ sectoral investment summits can attract sovereign wealth funds and long-horizon capital, while AfCFTA integration offers the chance to
harmonise standards and unlock broader continental trade opportunities.
A MOMENT OF TRUTH FOR SOUTH AFRICА
South Africa’s BRICS+ trade alignment is not a mere statistic – it’s a strategic crossroads. The headline USD 56.1 billion figure could evolve into a value-added growth engine if accompanied by decisive policy action. Otherwise, the country risks being boxed into outdated commodity dependency just as global value chains reconfigure. The opportunity window is narrow.
But with focused industrialisation, SME scaling, logistics overhaul, and skilful geopolitical management, South Africa can turn 2025 into a turning point, anchoring growth not in the past, but in a high-value future.
This content was produced for the SA Brics Business Council.
